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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT
INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING. ANOTHER
DROPSONDE...THIS ONE FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT AT 1835 Z...
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...WHICH HAS JUST
BEGUN ITS MISSION...HAS ALREADY REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT FROM
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. GIVEN THE PRESSURE
FALL...I WILL ASSUME THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN RECENTLY
SAMPLED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE
OVERALL APPEARANCE OF LILI HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH AN EXPANDING CLOUD PATTERN WITH GOOD BANDING
FEATURES. OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR LILI TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/9...AND THIS HEADING HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSTANT FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS. THE BASIC STEERING FLOW FOR
LILI IS BEING PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE THREE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD MAINTAIN LILI ON A RELATIVELY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FOCUSES THE
ULTIMATE THREAT TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 20.1N 80.7W 70 KTS
12HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 81.8W 75 KTS
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 84.0W 80 KTS
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 86.4W 90 KTS
48HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 89.0W 100 KTS
72HR VT 03/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 105 KTS
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