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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002

KYLE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  LOWER-LAYER AVERAGE WINDS
FROM GPS DROPSONDES A FEW HOURS AGO SUPPORTED 58 KT.  THE SATELLITE
IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE BLACKOUT SHOW A CDO FEATURE WITH A
LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND...IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA.  EARLIER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER WEST OF JAMAICA...AND OVER THE AREA OF VERY
HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF CUBA...STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY.  I CONSIDER THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
DAYS TO BE A CONSERVATIVE ONE.  LILI SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY TROPICAL CYCLONES...
ONLY BRINGS LILI TO 87 KT OVER THE GULF.  PERHAPS THAT IS BECAUSE
THE WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE NOT AS WARM AS THEY ARE TO THE
SOUTH.  ANALYSES FROM NHC SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDUCTION IN
THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER PARTS OF THE GULF TRAVERSED BY ISIDORE
LAST WEEK.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE GULF WATERS ARE STILL PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG
HURRICANE.

AFTER WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST SEVERAL HOURS AGO...RECENT SATELLITE 
IMAGES INDICATE THAT LILI IS NOW PRETTY MUCH BACK ON TRACK...WITH AN 
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8.  A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER 
ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE 
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES...SHOWS A MOTION 
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK 
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET 
OFFICE MODEL IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST THEN MOST...WHEREAS THE GFS 
AND GFDL ARE FASTER AND MORE THE NORTH AND EAST.  THIS FORECAST IS 
CLOSER TO THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE TRACKS. 

THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT OBVIOUSLY IMPLIES A THREAT TO THE 
NORTHERN OR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS 
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT SINCE THE 
AVERAGE ERROR IN THESE 3-DAY TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER 200 MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 19.4N  79.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N  80.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.3N  82.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  84.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 28.0N  91.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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