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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME SCENARIO AS EARLIER.  A DEEP LAYER
MEAN RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LILY AND FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... 
TOWARD THE WEST-NOTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN 
AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY THE 
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SO IS LILY GOING TO MOVE SOUTH OF 
CUBA...OVER CUBA...OR NORTH OF CUBA?  THESE THREE SCENARIOUS ALL 
TAKE PLACE WITHIN A HEADING FROM 300 TO 330 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 3 
DAYS.  SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  IN ANY CASE...THE STORM MAY 
FIND ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 DAYS WHERE 
CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A 
MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT.  SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS.  ALL 
FACTORS LOOK GOOD FOR INTENSIFICATION.  LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...GOOD 
OUFLOW PATTERN AND BANDING FEATURES.  THE AIRCRAFT EVEN REPORTED 
EVIDENCE OF A POORLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE...UNUSUAL FOR A 40-KNOT 
STORM.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL 
ORGANIZED AND KEEPS SPUTTERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A FIVE KNOT REDUCTION AT ALL FORECAST 
PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 5 KNOT DECREASE IN INITIAL WIND SPEED.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 19.0N  76.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N  77.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.6N  78.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.6N  79.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 22.4N  81.4W    60 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W    65 KTS
 
 
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