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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002

ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...LILI SHOWS SOME BANDING FEATURES BUT 
THE ENHANCED IR PRESENTATION IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RAGGED-LOOKING 
DEEP CONVECTION AND GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS.   THERE IS A 
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER THE 
CYCLONE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND 
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE 
INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF 
EASTERN CUBA COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE SIERRA MAESTRA 
RANGE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA HAS PEAKS IN EXCESS OF 
6000 FT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PRESUMES THAT THE CENTER 
WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER...AND THEREFORE SHOWS SLOW 
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS MORNING...THE CENTER REFORMED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS 
PREVIOUS LOCATION.  HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING 
NORTHWESTWARD...320/3.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS 
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IN 
PARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...HAS SHIFTED A 
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES...AND ON THE 
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 18.6N  75.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.3N  76.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  77.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  79.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  80.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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