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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
AN AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER AT 00Z.  BASED ON THIS FIX...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/7 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SOMEWHAT
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LILI IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE TRACK
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT TURNING THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS
SHOW THE STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE FOR A DAY
OR SO BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTAND
THE MECHANISM FOR THIS NORTHWARD MOTION...BUT SINCE THE INITIAL
MOTION APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DOING SO...I AM SHIFTING THE FORECAST
TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE
GFS MODEL WHICH IS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER AND HAS THE CENTER 
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN 72 HOURS.
 
ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THERE IS LITTLE
APPARENT VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY OR FORECAST TO BE NEARBY.  THE ONLY
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE STORM TRACK SO CLOSE TO OR OVER
CUBA.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY INTENSIFIES LILI TO 90 KNOTS
OR SO EVEN WHEN LAND IS CONSIDERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ONLY 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SO CLOSE TO CUBA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 17.7N  75.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 18.6N  75.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.7N  76.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 20.6N  77.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N  79.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.0N  81.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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