HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  87
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE.  KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE COASTLINE WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
WHILE A SECOND...NON-TROPICAL LOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.  THESE TWO LOWS APPEAR NOW TO HAVE 
DISTINCT SIGNATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THERE IS A BURST OF 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KYLE.  THERE IS 
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KYLE...SO TROPICAL 
REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.  THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
GFS MODEL DEEPENS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...WHICH THEN ENTRAINS
KYLE...OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS 
FOR KYLE TO BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW...PERHAPS SOONER THAN INDICATED 
BELOW.

AT 21.5 DAYS...KYLE IS NOW NUMBER THREE ON THE ATLANTIC BASIN 
LONGEVITY LIST...BEHIND INGA OF 1969 AT 24.75 DAYS...AND GINGER OF 
1971 AT 27.25 DAYS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT KYLE CAN MAKE IT TO 
NUMBER TWO.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 34.7N  77.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 35.8N  74.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
NNNN