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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  85
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ALONG THE COAST AND REPORTED
A FEW SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
BANDS TO THE EAST BUT RADAR INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
NOT WELL DEFINED AND IS BEING LEFT BEHIND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. KYLE MAY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT THIS
TIME AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.
 
BECAUSE THE CENTER IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IT APPEARS THAT KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 14 TO 16 KNOTS.  THIS MOTION MAY BE BIASED DUE TO THE
FAST MOTION OF THE CONVECTION.  NEVERTHELESS...ON THIS GENERAL
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE WILL KEEP HUGGING THE UPPER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  MOST
LIKELY THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  KYLE IS WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH...SO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 33.6N  78.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  76.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.0N  67.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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