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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  84
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002
 
RADAR FIXES FROM CHARLESTON INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF KYLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES ABOUT 13 KNOTS. ON
THIS TRACK...KYLE SHOULD BE MOVING MOVING ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE MOST OF 
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE 
CENTER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COASTLINE.   
KYLE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND LATEST AVAILABLE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT KYLE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SO INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. KYLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 32.4N  80.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  78.7W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     12/1200Z 36.0N  76.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     13/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/1200Z 41.0N  59.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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