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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  83
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND 5-10 KT HIGHER WINDS
IN ALL QUADRANTS THAN SEEN DURING THE MISSION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE 45 KT...KYLE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.
WHILE KYLE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...WSR-88D RADAR
DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE AND CHARLESTON INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS RATHER THAN SUSTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  TWO SUCH BURSTS RESEMBLING SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 5 HR.

KYLE MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE PAST 6 HR...LIKELY DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER
CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 345/11.  KYLE IS NOW PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MAKING
CONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...AND THAT MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
KYLE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN
ABOUT 12-18 HR...AND IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

KYLE WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
CAN OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS COULD
REACH 40 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SYSTEM COULD
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM WINDS DUE TO ACCELERATION...CLOSENESS
TO WATER...AND BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
THUS CALLS FOR KYLE TO MAINTAIN 35 KT WINDS UNTIL IT BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE NON-TROPICAL LOW FORECAST
TO BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 48 HR IS EX-KYLE OR A SEPARATE
DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AND ABSORB KYLE AFTER 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 31.2N  80.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 32.8N  80.7W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     12/0600Z 35.0N  78.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     12/1800Z 37.2N  74.0W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     13/0600Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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