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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  82
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002
 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH KYLE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS 
EVENING...AND THE JACKSONVILLE RADAR IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING 
STRUCTURE.  IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE CENTER OF KYLE PASSED VERY 
CLOSE TO BUOY 41012.  DATA FROM THIS BUOY INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL 
PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY...IF AT ALL...SINCE THE RECON 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SO I AM NOT GOING TO UPGRADE KYLE JUST YET.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN DOES NOT SETTLE THE ISSUE CLEARLY ONE WAY OR 
THE OTHER.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KYLE IN ABOUT 3 
HOURS.  I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM 
WATCH TO A WARNING...AND I EXPECT KYLE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11.  KYLE CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A BASICALLY NORTHWARD TRACK
UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE CENTER INLAND BUT CLOSE TO THE COAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE GFS AND UKMET
SHOW KYLE BEING ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THERE IS A 
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...THAT KYLE COULD MAINTAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY 
AND BE THE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 
CANADIAN AND GFDL MODELS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 30.3N  80.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.0N  80.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  79.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     12/1200Z 35.5N  76.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     13/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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