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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002
KYLE HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOT VERY PLENTIFUL...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY WHEN
AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OCCURRED. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. AS
BEFORE...ONLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...AND THAT
MODEL HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN WINDS UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES
THE COAST...BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE KYLE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED.
KYLE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AROUND A
LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING KYLE...ASSUMING IT SURVIVES...MOVING BACK OVER THE WATER BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.2N 80.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/0600Z 30.4N 81.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.3N 80.8W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 12/0600Z 34.0N 79.2W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 12/1800Z 35.3N 77.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 30 KTS...OVER WATER
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