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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  81
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

KYLE HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS 
NOT VERY PLENTIFUL...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY WHEN 
AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OCCURRED.  DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE 
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  AS 
BEFORE...ONLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...AND THAT 
MODEL HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN WINDS UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES 
THE COAST...BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO 
INVESTIGATE KYLE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED.

KYLE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AROUND A 
LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS 
FAVORING KYLE...ASSUMING IT SURVIVES...MOVING BACK OVER THE WATER BY 
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 29.2N  80.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 30.4N  81.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 32.3N  80.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     12/0600Z 34.0N  79.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     12/1800Z 35.3N  77.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     13/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
 
 
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