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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  79
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D
INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  SO FAR...THE CONVECTION IS
NEITHER WELL-BANDED NOR CONCENTRATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SHIP IN A
CLOUD BAND WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KT WINDS AT 03Z.
THIS BAND HAS RUN AWAY FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA...AND THUS THIS WIND IS LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME... 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO TURN NORTHWARD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EITHER 
INLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS 
SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING IN WHETHER KYLE WILL MOVE 
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
CALLS FOR KYLE TO RECURVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND MAKE 
LANDFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER 48 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY MOTION WEST 
OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND FARTHER SOUTH 
AND EARLIER.

KYLE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND
WHILE SOME DRY AIR IS SEEN NEAR THE CYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN 24 HR AGO HAS DIMINISHED.  WITH THE RETURN OF
THE CONVECTION...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A PATTERN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SAVE FOR THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR KYLE TO BE STEADY-STATE OR WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ANY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY WITH
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE FORECAST
LIGHT SHEAR...KYLE COULD RE-INTENSIFY IF THE CONVECTION CAN
CONCENTRATE AND PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 28.3N  77.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.4N  79.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.1N  80.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 30.3N  81.1W    25 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 31.8N  80.9W    25 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N  79.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
 
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