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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002
 
OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE.  WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB.  THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER
SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE.  WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST
FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR.  THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN
ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT.  I SUSPECT THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH
CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE MODELS.

KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 28.3N  76.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.3N  77.7W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.6N  79.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.4N  80.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 34.0N  79.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
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