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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  77
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVISTS INDICATE THAT 
THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KT.  ONLY A FEW...ISOLATED 
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.  SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE A 
SUPPRESSING INFLUENCE.  THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY A SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS BUT...SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS STILL A 
POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVLOPING IN THE CIRCULATION.  WE 
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY KYLE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND SEE IF IT 
MAKES A COMEBACK THIS EVENING.  UNLESS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION RETURN SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT 
LOW.

THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW 
AROUND A LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH.  THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN AS DISSIPATING 
OVER LAND BUT...AS NOTED ABOVE...KYLE MAY HAVE DISSIPATED AS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL BEFORE THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 28.4N  75.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N  76.7W    25 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  78.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 28.3N  80.4W    25 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  81.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     12/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
 
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