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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002
KYLE CONTINUES AS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO...NO DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DOWN TO 25 KT BUT SINCE A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE PRESENTLY I
WILL WAIT TO SEE THE AIRCRAFT DATA BEFORE LOWERING THE WINDS. AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES MORE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND...IF THIS
CONTINUES...KYLE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING...MAINLY
BECAUSE THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DECREASING SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ARE
DOMINATING THAT MODEL'S INTENSITY FORECAST. NONE OF THE PURELY
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW RE-STRENGTHENING.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS KYLE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS STEERED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRACK PREDICTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 28.5N 74.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 10/0000Z 28.0N 76.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 10/1200Z 27.7N 77.9W 30 KTS
36HR VT 11/0000Z 28.0N 79.9W 25 KTS
48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.8N 81.3W 25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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