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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  75
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002

KYLE CONTINUES AS A LARGE CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND
25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT
BASED ON EARLIER SSM/I...QUIKSCAT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
LATER MICROWAVE DATA SHOULD HELP GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY...AS SHOULD AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 220/10...AND POST-ECLIPSE IMAGES HINT AT A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF KYLE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THAT BECOMES WESTERLY BY
24-36 HR.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY 72 HR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TURN.  MOST
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF MOTION...WHICH WOULD BRING
THE CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE MODELS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST RESPONDS TO THIS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND
SLOWING PREVIOUS TO THAT SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
DEVELOPING OVER KYLE...AND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY
DECREASING.  THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR AT THE MOMENT APPEARS TO BE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTER THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT
RETURN IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WAY...AND THAT KYLE WILL COAST ALONG AS A
30 KT DEPRESSION DUE MAINLY TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON 
THE NORTHWEST SIDE.  WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WOULD THEN OCCUR 
AFTER LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST KYLE TO MOVE 
UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH THE 
SHEAR CONTINUING TO DECREASE.  IF CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE 
SYSTEM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STRENGTHENING COULD 
OCCUR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 28.7N  73.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 28.0N  75.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 27.4N  77.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 27.4N  79.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.8N  81.1W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
 
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