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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  74
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002
 
KYLE NO LONGER HAS ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF THE
PREREQUISITES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT KYLE IN EMBEDDED IN SOME RATHER DRY AIR THAT WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO GENERATING NEW CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...THE CLOCK IS
TICKING...AND IF KYLE DOES NOT RECOVER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...IT WILL EITHER DEGENERATE TO A SIMPLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...OR PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE TO AN OPEN
TROUGH.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER
INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME LESS
HOSTILE...SO A RESURGENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...THE GFS
AND UKMET CONTINUE WITH THEIR FORECASTS OF DISSIPATION...AND THE
GFDL MODEL...WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS THROWN IN THE TOWEL AND NOW
FORECASTS A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AS WELL.  ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL 
FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...BUT THIS MODEL HAS ACCUMULATED SOME PRETTY 
HEFTY HIGH BIASES ALREADY WITH THIS STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND DOES NOT INDICATE A RETURN 
TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF KYLE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE U.S. 
EAST COAST...WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER 
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE EVEN AS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION WEAKENS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 215/10...FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  KYLE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND BRINGS KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
KYLE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 29.5N  72.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 28.4N  74.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 27.8N  76.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 27.5N  78.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.5N  82.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
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