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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  73
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002

VERTICAL SHEAR HAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER OF KYLE.  
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED...BUT CURRENTLY THERE 
IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE MORE TIME.  WILL KYLE MAKE YET ANOTHER 
COMEBACK?  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EQUIVOCAL ON THE ANSWER.  FACTORS 
IN FAVOR OF RESTRENGTHENING ARE...WARM WATERS AND A GOOD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION.  FACTORS OPPOSING RE-STRENGTHING ARE...MODERATE 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A 
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL WIND 
SPEED FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER WE 
CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...220/8.  THE 
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  KYLE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN 
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS TAKES KYLE TO THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA LATE 
IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW SIGNIFICANT A SYSTEM IT 
WILL BE BY THEN. 

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE 
KYLE TOMORROW.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 30.4N  72.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 29.5N  73.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 28.6N  74.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 27.7N  77.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 28.0N  81.0W    30 KTS
 
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