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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  71
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002

POST-ECLIPSE IR IMAGERY AND A 0408Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATE THAT
KYLE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY
EXPOSED AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS NO OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE CENTER IS
WELL DEFINED...THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED 
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF KYLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND AWFA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 195/3...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A
LITTLE FASTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF KYLE...WHICH IS ABOUT TO BYPASS
THE STORM.  THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF KYLE ARE ELONGATING AND MOVING NORTHWARD...BYPASSING KYLE
TO THE EAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF KYLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT/SHORTWAVE...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO....WITH CLIPER BEING THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE...A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

KYLE IS LIKELY TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BUILD NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SOMEWHAT
LESSEN THE SHEAR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARMER WATER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT KYLE COULD
STRUGGLE FOR 24 HR OR SO THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...THE
AVN/GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAKENING KYLE...
WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MAINTAINING THE STORM AT OR ABOVE ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW SOME MODEST 
STRENGTHENING...LESS THAN FORECAST 24 HR AGO...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...A STEADY-STATE OR
WEAKENING KYLE COULD OCCUR IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 31.9N  71.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  71.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  72.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 28.9N  73.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  75.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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