HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  70
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2002
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF 
KYLE...WHICH HAS LIMITED AND MOSTLY SHAPELESS CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS 
ARE UNCHANGED FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES AND SO IS THE ADVISORY 
INTENSITY.  KYLE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A 
SOUTHWARD DRIFT...AND THE ADVISORY MOTION WILL BE 180/2.
 
KYLE HAS LOTS OF COMPANY IN A COMPLEX NEAR ENVIRONMENT.  A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE IN ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND IS STARTING TO LOSE SOME DEFINITION.  THIS
SYSTEM IS TRYING TO STEER KYLE SOUTHWARD.  A SMALLER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY HELPING TO NEGATE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FIRST
LOW...BUT SHOULD LOSE OUT IN THE END AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
KYLE.  THE END RESULT IS THAT A BASIC SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND 
NOGAPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IN 
GENERAL THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THIS 
DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL TRACKS 
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MAJOR OUTLIER NOW 
IS THE UKMET...WHICH PULLS KYLE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LARGE UPPER 
LOW.  SHOULD KYLE GET UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT COULD FIND ITSELF IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.  

KYLE IS POISED TO ENTER THE TOP TEN LIST OF LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.  WITH THIS ADVISORY...KYLE HAS BEEN IN
EXISTENCE FOR 17.5 DAYS...PUTTING IT AT NUMBER 11.  THE CURRENT TOP
TEN IS GIVEN BELOW...THANKS TO ERIC BLAKE.  PERHAPS THE MERE 
COMPILATION OF THIS LIST WILL MAKE KYLE GO AWAY...
 
RANK  #DAYS  NAME/YEAR
----------------------
1     27.25  GINGER 1971
2     24.75  INGA 1969
3     20.75  CARRIE 1957
             STORM 9 OF 1893
5     20.25  INEZ 1966
6     19.75  ALBERTO 2000
7     19.50  STORM 4 OF 1926
8     18.50  STORM 6 OF 1893
9     18.00  STORM 2 OF 1930
10    17.75  STORM 2 OF 1899
11    17.50  KYLE 2002
             BEULAH 1967
             STORM 3 OF 1906
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 32.3N  71.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 31.9N  71.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 31.0N  71.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  71.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 29.0N  72.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 28.0N  74.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN