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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  69
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2002

DATA T-NUMBERS...BASED ON AN ILL-DEFINED BANDING PATTERN...SUGGEST 
THAT KYLE MAY HAVE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS 
STILL RATHER PALTRY AND THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH 
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.  THE 
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE...AS PER USUAL...SINCE 
WE HAVE A LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE.

LATEST POSITION ESTIMATES SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION.  THE LARGE 
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS 
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROM FLORIDA OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR A 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NEAR THE 
END OF THE PERIOD.  THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE 
NORTH OF THIS MORNINGS OUTPUT...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... 
WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO GUNA...THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/AVN(GFS) 
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 32.7N  70.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 32.1N  70.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  71.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 29.3N  71.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  73.0W    45 KTS
 
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