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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2002
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS AN ELLIPTICAL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. CURRENTLY...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING
TO IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE IS RATHER LIMITED AND THE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. DESPITE
GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS WHICH
INTENSIFY KYLE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IS FORECAST SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/3...JUST DRIFTING SOUTHWEST. A SLOW
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHILE KYLE
REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE WEST OF KYLE. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...KYLE WILL BE
STEERED AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 32.6N 70.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 70.9W 40 KTS
24HR VT 08/1200Z 31.3N 70.9W 45 KTS
36HR VT 09/0000Z 30.4N 71.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 71.2W 45 KTS
72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.5N 72.0W 45 KTS
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