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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  68
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2002
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS AN ELLIPTICAL LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. CURRENTLY...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING 
TO IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE IS RATHER LIMITED AND THE DVORAK 
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  DESPITE  
GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS WHICH 
INTENSIFY KYLE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ONLY A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IS FORECAST SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/3...JUST DRIFTING SOUTHWEST.  A SLOW 
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHILE KYLE 
REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  LATER IN THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
TO THE NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES AS A RIDGE 
BUILDS TO THE WEST OF KYLE. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...KYLE WILL BE 
STEERED AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. 

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 32.6N  70.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 32.0N  70.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 31.3N  70.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 30.4N  71.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  71.2W    45 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 27.5N  72.0W    45 KTS
 
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