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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  67
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2002

NIGHTTIME INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0504 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH ONE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33.5N71.5W AND A
SECOND VORTEX/VORTMAX NEAR 32N70W NEAR THE MAIN CONVECTION.  THE
INITIAL COORDINATES FOR THIS ADVISORY ARE SOMEWHAT RE-LOCATED TO A
MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THE TWO VORTICITY CENTERS...AND SOME FURTHER
RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE WESTERN CENTER IS ACTUALLY THE
MAIN CENTER.  WHILE THE MAIN CONVECTION IS NEAREST THE EASTERN
CENTER...SOME SMALL BURSTS HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE WESTERN.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...WINDS FROM THE
TRMM OVERPASS HINT THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 240/3.  KYLE REMAINS
CAUGHT IN A COL BETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH
A UPPER COLD LOW/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AT THE MOMENT...
THE COLD LOW/TROUGH IS WINNING THE RACE TO KYLE...AND MUCH OF THE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOTION AS A RESULT.
ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTERLIES WEST OF KYLE 
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ONLY CLIPER AND
THE NHC98 FORECAST KYLE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  IN VIEW OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW SOUTH- 
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT BECOMES SOUTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE 
FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION 
ALONG WITH THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE.  IF THE WESTERN CENTER IS 
ACTUALLY THE MAIN CENTER...A FURTHER SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY 
BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE
MAIN CONVECTION...THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AT THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST END OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HINTS THAT SOMETHING
IS NOT QUITE RIGHT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ALREADY HAVING A SHEARING INFLUENCE.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 HR...AND EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT
QUITE RIGHT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS STILL LIKELY
TO BE THE CASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SMALLER UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST EAT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS MOVE NEAR KYLE IN 24 HR OR SO.  THIS MIGHT GIVE KYLE A LITTLE 
KICK BEFORE THE STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY KYLE
HOLDING ITS OWN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS A CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER FORECAST THAT THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH STRENGTHENS KYLE
DESPITE THE SHEAR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 32.8N  70.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  70.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 32.0N  71.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 31.3N  71.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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