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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  66
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
 
KYLE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASE DURING 
THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED BACK INTO A MORE 
TYPICAL BANDING PATTERN. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT 
PROBLEMATIC WITH A 07/0025Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATING A POSSIBLE 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION... 
WHILE THE SAME IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE MID-LEVEL 
DOUGHNUT-HOLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BETWEEN 
THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IN CASE 
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE 
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD AS AN ANTICYCLONE HAS 
BUILT ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/02. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES... 
KYLE COULD EASILY BE CONSIDERED STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW-LEVEL 
FEATURE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFDN...AND THE BAM 
MODELS NOW AGREE ON TAKING KYLE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 
THAT. THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA 
IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 
36 HOURS AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND WEAKEN 
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SEEMS 
REASONABLE...BUT I FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW 
TOO QUICKLY GIVEN ITS RATHER LARGE SIZE OF ALMOST 1000 NMI IN 
DIAMETER. AS SUCH...I EXPECT THE UPPER-LOW TO HAVE A GREATER 
SOUTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THAN WHAT THE AVN/GFS IS INDICATING... 
BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS KYLE VERY 
CLOSE TO BERMUDA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN 
KYLE AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST...THE UPPER-LOW IS MUCH LARGER 
THAN KYLE AND THEREFORE SHOULD ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE 
SOUTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL SOLUTION TAKES KYLE NORTH 
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...WHICH APPEARS TO 
BE THE OUTLIER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR 
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN DIRECTION...BUT CONSIDERABLY 
FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS.

WITH SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS KYLE 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS 
FORECAST. BUT SINCE KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE LATITUDE AND 
MOVE OVER WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 
FORECAST AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
STILL LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH MAKES KYLE A HURRICANE AGAIN 
BY 72 HOURS...IN SPITE OF NEARLY 30 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 32.5N  69.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 32.5N  69.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 32.3N  69.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 31.7N  68.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 30.8N  68.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  68.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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