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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  65
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
WITH MORE SYMMETRY AND HINTS OF BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T2.5 SO WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BECOMING
WELL ESTABLISHED OVER KYLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES MORE
STRENGTHENING IN 12 TO 24 HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BECAUSE OF THE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ORGANIZING TREND.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE.
 
PREVIOUS CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH...OR THE CENTER MAY HAVE REFORMED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT MOTION.  THE STORM REMAINS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  A TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES
SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF KYLE.  THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST COULD STEER THE
STORM SOUTHWARD.  WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 32.7N  69.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 32.7N  69.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 32.6N  69.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 32.5N  69.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 32.0N  69.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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