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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
IN ADDITION TO A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB...A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS WE ARE RE-UPGRADING KYLE TO A
TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS NOW IN A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THESE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW AND INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROBABLY CREATE A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. KYLE IS VIRTUALLY IN A COL...WITH A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FUTURE MOTION OF KYLE. IN PARTICULAR THERE IS A QUESTION HOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE
STEERING. THEREFORE...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.7N 69.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 69.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 07/1200Z 34.0N 69.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 08/0000Z 34.0N 68.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.0N 68.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 09/1200Z 34.0N 68.5W 35 KTS
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