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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  63
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4.  GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND THE 
CANADIAN MODEL ALL SHOW KYLE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE IN AN 
ANTICYCLONIC TURN AT VARIOUS FORWARD SPEEDS.  ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL 
SHOWS KYLE GETTING PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE 
STRATEGY USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD 
MOTION FOLLOWED BY STATIONARY AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS A SMALL 
ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED A VERY SLOW 
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND AGREES BETTER WITH A CONSENSUS 
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITIES ARE IN THE 30 
TO 35 KNOT RANGE.  SO KYLE MAY AGAIN BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH.  HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 23Z AGO SHOWED ALL WIND SPEEDS 
LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.  I WILL LEAVE THE UPGRADE TO THE NEXT ADVISORY 
IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS.  AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR NOW APPEARS TO BE 
SMALL AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SMALL FOR A WHILE...KYL IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME A STORM AGAIN FOR THE THIRD TIME...IN 12 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 33.5N  69.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 33.8N  69.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 34.0N  68.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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