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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  62
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002

KYLE CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A FAIRLY LARGE AND VIGOROUS LOW-
LEVEL SWIRL.  HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AS
EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD
THE CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED.  A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS 25-30 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM
AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE THE BASIS FOR THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY
OF 30 KT.
 
KYLE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 060/5.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING...AS INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KYLE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IT MORE NORTHWARD.
THE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING FRONT 
NORTHWEST OF KYLE WITH ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KYLE IS GOING TO
STAY CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE RIDGES FOR AT LEAST 36 HR...WITH THE
NEXT POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS
COMING EITHER WHEN A NEW DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND OR WHEN KYLE INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE EARLIEST EITHER OF THESE IS LIKELY
TO HAPPEN IS 48 HR...AND THERE IS NO WAY TO TELL AT THIS MOMENT
WHICH WILL BE THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON KYLE.  TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS MANY SOLUTIONS FROM SOUTH TO EAST TO NORTH WITH CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD.  IN VIEW OF THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR... WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

SHEAR PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER KYLE...AND LARGE-
SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 36 HR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-ORGANIZE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HR...THEN KYLE MAY WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW AFTER
THE SHEAR INCREASES.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 33.3N  69.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 33.6N  69.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 33.8N  68.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  67.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  66.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 34.0N  65.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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