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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  61
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002
 
KYLE HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BE INTERMITTENT AND KEEPS REFORMING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF
SHEAR RELAXES AS ANTICIPATED.
 
KYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 OR 9  KNOTS. THERE ARE ALL 
KINDS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...FROM MERGING WITH A WESTWARD DEVELOPING 
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MODEL...TO 
THE INTERACTION WITH SUCH LOW AND THEN MOVING KYLE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS 
SUGGESTED BY THE UK MODEL. THE GFDL MAKES IT A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES 
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ABOUT KYLE.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTH NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO 
THE EAST AT ABOUT 2 TO 4 KNOTS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 33.4N  70.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 34.4N  70.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  69.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 35.5N  68.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 35.5N  67.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 35.5N  66.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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