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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002
 
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THERE IS NO 
OTHER DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.  SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CI 2.0/2.5/2.5 OR 30/35/35 KNOTS 
FROM SAB/TAFB/AFGWC.  RECENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATES FROM SSMI AND TRMM 
PASSES INDICATE WINDS ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS.  SO KYLE IS DOWNGRADED TO 
A DEPRESSION.  

THE CENTER BECAME POORLY DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE 
ECLIPSE...BUT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL MOTION 
OF 310/8.  THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW 
KYLE TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE 
NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS KYLE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS 
FOLLOWED BY STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL AND THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE 
TO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING 
KYLE IS FORECAST TO SOON DECREASE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 32.0N  72.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 33.4N  72.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.6N  71.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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