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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002
 
KYLE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND WITH
THEM...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS GO UP AND DOWN.  CURRENTLY...THE CENTER
IS EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AND INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  KYLE HAS GONE THROUGH AND SURVIVED
SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG SHEAR DURING THE PAST WEEK AND A NEW ONE
IS OCCURRING NOW.  HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE AGAIN.  THEREFORE...IF KYLE
SURVIVES THE CURRENT SHEAR...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AGAIN AS 
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

KYLE IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE 
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING KYLE TO GRADUALLY TURN 
TO THE NORTH VERY SLOWLY. THE BIG QUESTION IS...WILL THE NEW SHORT 
WAVE CARRY KYLE WITH IT TO THE NORTHEAST? MODELS DISAGREE AND THE 
BEST SOLUTION IS TO KEEP KYLE MOVING VERY SLOWLY UNTIL A MORE 
DEFINITE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 30.2N  69.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  70.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 31.5N  71.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  71.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  71.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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