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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
KYLE REFUSES TO GO AWAY...BUT NEITHER DOES IT WANT TO MAINTAIN ANY 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES WHICH WERE IN 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AT 00Z. THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE 
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A DVORAK INTENSITY 
ANALYSIS USING A SHEAR PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/3. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
HIGHLY DIVERGENT BETWEEN A WEST THROUGH NORTHERLY MOTION FROM ITS 
CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE 
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY 
MADE KYLE A MORE SHALLOW VERTICAL CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT 
MEANS THAT STEERING CURRENTS MAY BECOME WEAK AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST BY 
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN HIGHLY ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF EACH 
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TO KYLE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE 
BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND KYLE STALLS...AGAIN. THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH 
IN SHORT SPURTS AROUND THE SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST 
OF BERMUDA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN/GFS...AVN/GFS 
ENSEMBLE...AND UMMET MODELS.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SOME NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN 
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...THE 200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 29.5N  68.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  69.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  70.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  71.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 35.5N  69.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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