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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
KYLE REFUSES TO GO AWAY...BUT NEITHER DOES IT WANT TO MAINTAIN ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES WHICH WERE IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION AT 00Z. THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSIS USING A SHEAR PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/3. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY DIVERGENT BETWEEN A WEST THROUGH NORTHERLY MOTION FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY
MADE KYLE A MORE SHALLOW VERTICAL CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT
MEANS THAT STEERING CURRENTS MAY BECOME WEAK AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN HIGHLY ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF EACH
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TO KYLE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE
BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND KYLE STALLS...AGAIN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN SHORT SPURTS AROUND THE SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN/GFS...AVN/GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND UMMET MODELS.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SOME NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE 200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 29.5N 68.1W 45 KTS
12HR VT 04/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 40 KTS
24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.5N 70.2W 40 KTS
36HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 71.1W 50 KTS
72HR VT 07/0000Z 35.5N 69.5W 50 KTS
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