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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
KYLE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT...AS EXPECTED.  THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/4.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...AND SHOULD GENTLY 
STEER KYLE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ON A GRADUAL RECURVING TRACK BETWEEN 
THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA.  MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS CONSIDERABLE 
SCATTER WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFS IS AMONG THE SLOWEST 
MODELS...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WESTWARD COMPONENT FOR THE FIRST 24 
HOURS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TRACK 
AND IN BETTER TOUCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
LEANS IN THIS DIRECTION.

WHILE THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE IS BROAD...IS APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN 
DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY.  CONVECTION IS WEAK AND LIMITED IN AREAL 
EXTENT.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF 
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 
45 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR 
WILL HARASS KYLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ADDITIONAL DECREASES 
ARE EXPECTED.  AS KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 29.2N  67.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 29.4N  68.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 29.8N  69.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.4N  70.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 31.5N  71.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  71.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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