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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND
THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...AT LEAST
FOR MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MOTION TO A MORE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KTS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KTS.  INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER.  KYLE HAS ABOUT 6 TO 12
HOURS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS KYLE WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 29.0N  66.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.2N  67.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 29.5N  68.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 29.9N  69.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 30.7N  70.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  71.4W    45 KTS
 
 
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