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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW STATIONARY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND
THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST...AT LEAST FOR
MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE T-NUMBERS HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED AND ARE NOW 3.0 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
AT 55 KTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KTS.  A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS IT WAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
KYLE HAS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS KYLE 
WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 29.1N  66.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.1N  66.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 29.0N  67.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.8N  67.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 28.7N  68.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.8N  71.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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