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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
KYLE HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW NEARLY
CO-LOCATED. THERE IS A...UH...HOLE...AT THE CENTER THAT I WOULD
CALL AN EYE IF THE NEARBY CONVECTION WAS MORE SOLID OR VIGOROUS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE BOTH 55 KT.
SINCE THE TREND IN THE CLASSIFICATIONS IS UPWARD...I WILL ASSUME THE
WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT AT ADVISORY TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/2. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE
THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST...AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...THE GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS ANY
MORE EASTWARD TRANSLATION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL DOES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY CONVERGING A BIT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT OR JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH ERODES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KYLE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A SHOT
OF UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THE SHEAR. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KYLE REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BRIEFLY BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 29.0N 66.8W 60 KTS
12HR VT 03/0600Z 29.0N 66.5W 65 KTS
24HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 66.7W 60 KTS
36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.5N 67.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W 50 KTS
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