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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
KYLE IS TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  CONVECTION IS WRAPPING 
NICELY AROUND A MID LEVEL CENTER...BUT THIS IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST 
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.   IN ADDITION...BANDING IS BEGINNING 
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO 
GAUGE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT.  THERE WAS A LARGE 
AREA OF 45 KT RAIN-FLAGGED QUIKSCAT WINDS...WITH SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 
SPOTS OF 55 AND 60 KT.  THERE IS A BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER BUT ITS 
REPORTS HAVE BEEN QUITE ERRATIC.  MY INTERPRETATION OF THE QUIKSCAT 
IS THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 50 KT...PERHAPS A SHADE 
HIGHER.

KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING OR REDEVELOPING EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION 
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 070/4.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED 
IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER 
HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH 
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO 
THREE DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR 
WEST...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST THIS 
WILL OCCUR.  THE UKMET SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION RIGHT AWAY THAT IS AT 
ODDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS.  BOTH THE GFDL AND AVN SHOW UP TO 24 HOURS 
OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT BEFORE TURNING KYLE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST 
AND SOUTHWEST...RESPECTIVELY.  A GOOD SHOT OF UPPER NORTHERLY OR 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE COMING AROUND THIS HIGH IN A DAY OR 
SO...SO I THINK THE SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IS MORE LIKELY.

KYLE HAS ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER NORTHEASTERLIES INCREASE THE SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH 
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS...THE GFDL MAKES KYLE A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS 
QUITE PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE CYCLONES CURRENT EFFORTS TO ORGANIZE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 28.9N  67.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 29.0N  66.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.8N  66.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N  67.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.3N  67.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  68.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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