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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE MODELS AGREE ON A
CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT DIRECTION OF MOTION.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A
WESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION.  THE
CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS IS FOR LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE MOTION ALSO.
 
A DRIFTING BUOY ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 45 KNOTS
AT 0330Z AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO 45 KNOTS.
 THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS.  THE LATEST INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST
OF THE CENTER AND THIS IMPLIES SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM 24 KNOTS TO 15 KNOTS IN
48 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY AN
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 28.5N  67.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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