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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED.  TENACIOUS KYLE HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR.  IN
FACT...DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT KYLE IS A TROPICAL STORM AND
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND IS KEPT
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD LEAD
TO STRENGTHENING.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED
BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EXPANDS EASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LONG RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS
IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...BERMUDA HAS OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 27.8N  67.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N  67.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  68.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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