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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 
40 KNOTS. MODELS ARE FINALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND NO LONGER BRING 
KYLE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE ATLANTIC 
AND CARRIES KYLE WITH IT. THIS INCLUDES THE NOGAPS WHICH NOW CHANGED 
ITS TUNE AND MOVES KYLE EASTWARD AT THE LONG RANGE. 

WITH THIS CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES KYLE VERY LITTLE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN CALL FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION. 
THIS NEW TRACK BRINGS KYLE TO AN AREA OF HIGHER SHEAR SO... 
STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 28.5N  64.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 28.5N  64.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 29.0N  65.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  64.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 29.5N  61.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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