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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED OVER NIGHT DUE TO 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF 
HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED NEAR AND SOUTH THE CENTER 
OF CIRCULATION...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY WELL DEFINED. 
THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. 
MODELS HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT SHEAR WILL RELAX AND MAYBE THIS 
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE THE BEGINNING. BECAUSE 
THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX COMPLETELY...NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF 
IT DOES...KYLE COULD EVENTUALLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS 
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND KYLE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY 
OR DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FACT THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST TRACK IN ALL 
DIRECTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN INDICATION OF WEAK STEERING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND 
KEEP KYLE OF A VERY SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

THE OUTLIER BUT THE MOST INTERESTING MODEL IS THE NOGAPS. IT 
MAINTAINS KYLE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A STRONG TROPICAL 
STORM OR A HURRICANE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA 
IN THE LONG RANGE. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 27.7N  64.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 27.7N  65.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 27.6N  65.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 27.5N  66.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N  66.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  66.7W    60 KTS
 
 
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