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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
 
KYLE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS 
SEPARATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS 
EVEN LOWER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2224 UTC INDICATED 40 KT 
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON ALL THIS 
INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO 45 KT.  
THE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF BERMUDA WHICH IS HELPING TO 
PRODUCE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE 
EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BECOMES ORIENTED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE SOME OVER KYLE.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
SLIGHT WEAKENING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH SLOW 
INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS 
MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/5...A LITTLE FASTER THAN 
EARLIER TODAY.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWEST TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE STEERING 
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND A HIGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 
COAST.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE 
TRACK...WITH THE GFS MODEL AGAIN BEING THE OUTLIER AS IT MOVES KYLE 
EASTWARD.  OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE 
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT A DAY OR SO...THEN 
TURN IT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...
APPARENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING HIGH TO ITS 
NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 
SLOWER GFDL SOLUTION. 

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 27.3N  63.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 27.9N  64.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 28.2N  65.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 27.9N  65.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 27.5N  65.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  67.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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