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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
 
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPOSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE
LATE THIS MORNING.  THE EXPOSED CENTER BEGAN TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF
A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE TRACK OF KYLE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS
MOVING KYLE EASTWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TAKE KYLE ON A
WEST OR SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...AND MOVES KYLE VERY SLOWLY IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION.

THE GFS 200 MB FORECAST SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR RELAXING AND 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER KYLE...SO WE EXPECT KYLE TO BEGIN 
RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. 

FORECASTER PASCH/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 26.8N  63.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 26.9N  64.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N  65.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 27.0N  65.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.0N  66.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N  66.5W    65 KTS
 
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