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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
 
THE FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE PERIOD WERE NOT HELPFUL IN 
DETERMINING A CENTER FIX FOR KYLE. HOWEVER A 0657 UTC TRMM PASS
PROVIDED THE ADDITIONAL DETAIL FOR AN ACCURATE FIX AT SYNOPTIC 
TIME. THE TRMM DATA ALSO INDICATES A SYSTEM THAT IS STILL 
VERTICALLY ALIGNED. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS 
STRUGGLING VALIANTLY AGAINST THE HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT WITH 
DECENT OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KT FOR THIS 
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 250/6 KT. 
KYLE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED 
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SECOND RIDGE 
ALONG 17N ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT 
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING 
MECHANISM. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY ALL OVER THE 
COMPASS WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS RANGING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN 
BAHAMAS TO 30N60W. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TAKING KYLE 
EASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...AS THE GFS TRACKER APPEARS TO BE 
FOLLOWING BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AND MOVES 
KYLE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO ALONG 66W BY 72 HOURS. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS
FOR SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND
KYLE MAY REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS. 

THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT EXTEND TO 
WITHIN 120 NM OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THIS AND THE SLOW MOTION OF KYLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LARGE SWELLS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA 
AS EARLY AS LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 26.2N  62.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 26.1N  63.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 26.1N  63.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  64.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 26.0N  65.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  66.5W    65 KTS
 
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