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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY 
SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON KYLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL 
CENTER AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES...DUE TO DVORAK WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS...REMAIN 77 KT FROM 
TAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/4 KT.  KYLE REMAINS TRAPPED 
BETWEEN A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA 
AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORECAST IS 
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS 
DISCUSSION... THE AVN CONTINUES TO TAKE KYLE EASTWARD AFTER 36 
HOURS...AS THE AVN TRACKER APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING BAROCLINIC 
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS 
FOR STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY 
SHEAR CONTINUES.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND 
KYLE MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A RECENT 
QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION WELL SOUTH OF 
THE CENTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 26.6N  61.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  61.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 26.4N  62.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 26.4N  63.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 26.4N  63.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.3N  64.5W    60 KTS
 
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