HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
KYLE HAS BEEN DOING AN ADMIRABLE JOB IN FIGHTING OFF THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF KYLE...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DESCENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SHEAR TENDENCY CHARTS
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER
KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ALSO...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED DRY AIR NORTH OF KYLE MAY START TO GET
ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AT LOWER LEVELS.  AS A RESULT...A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER IN ROUGH AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/4.  KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
KYLE IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN.  WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY PUSH
IMMINENT...KYLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BERMUDA/U.S.  RIDGE WILL SLIDE OR
BUILD WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER.
HOWEVER...TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 36
HOURS.  THE UKMET RECURVES KYLE INTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS
OFFSHORE THE U.S.  EAST COAST IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE AVN TAKES KYLE
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND MISSES THE TROUGH.  ONLY THE BAM
MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS IN THE THREE TO
FIVE DAY TIME FRAME.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH ANTICIPATES KYLE BEING ABANDONED BY ANY
APPRECIABLE STEERING FLOW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 26.9N  60.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.8N  61.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.6N  61.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.5N  62.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  62.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN