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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

KYLE HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND ITS
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  KYLE STILL HAS
ABOUT 12 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO ADVERSELY
AFFECT THE HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE
FIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT KYLE WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT AND MEANDER 
SOUTHWARD.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 28.1N  58.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  59.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.3N  60.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.9N  61.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.4W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 26.3N  61.2W    60 KTS
 
 
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