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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
KYLE REMAINS A HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  KYLE STILL HAS
ABOUT 12 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO ADVERSELY
AFFECT THE HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE
FIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AFTER
THAT WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE
LOCATED BETWEEN KYLE AND ISIDORE TO ITS WEST. THE RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN KYLE AND LILI LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 28.6N  57.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.3N  58.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 27.8N  59.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 27.4N  60.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  61.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  60.7W    60 KTS
 
 
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