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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
KYLE HAS REMAINED IN A STATUS QUO FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  IT STILL
HAS SEVEN TENTHS BANDING AND THE T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.5...FROM TAFB
AND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KTS.

THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TAKEN ON A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND IS NOW MOVING AT 260/12.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BRING THE SYSTEM TO A SNAILS PACE BY 48 TO 72
HOURS.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS MOTION REMAINS THE
SAME...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 24
HOURS AND KYLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS.  THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO
WRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND IF IT DOES THE SYSTEM WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CYCLONE AND
CAUSE KYLE TO START WEAKENING.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 29.6N  54.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 29.3N  56.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  57.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  58.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.7N  59.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  59.4W    60 KTS
 
 
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