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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
KYLE HAS GONE THROUGH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE INITIALLY GOT SMALLER IN LENGTH BUT 
RECENTLY HAS WRAPPED AROUND ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE AND IS NOW 
BACK TO ITS ORIGINAL VALUE. THUS...THE T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 
3.5...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 
KTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/06.  KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THAT SAME GENERAL
DIRECTION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.
THERE REMAINS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS
ON TAKING KYLE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER
THAT.  BY 72 HOURS...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.  DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 24
HOURS AND KYLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS.  GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...KYLE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AND CAUSE KYLE TO START WEAKENING.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 29.9N  52.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  53.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 29.0N  54.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.5N  56.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 27.9N  57.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.4N  58.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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